Fundamental events, such as the approval of the U.S. budget, often become the starting point for strong directional movements in the currency market. To trade binary options with confidence, it’s important to understand both the fundamental context and the ideal technical entry point.
🇺🇸 What the Approval of the U.S. Budget Means
An approved budget affects the U.S. dollar through several mechanisms:
1️⃣ Government debt and deficit
Increasing spending and widening the deficit put pressure on the dollar because economic risks grow.
Source: CRFB — analysis of U.S. budget spending and deficits.
2️⃣ Inflation and Federal Reserve actions
If the budget stimulates inflation, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates — this strengthens the dollar.
Source: OANDA — impact of government spending on interest rates and USD.
3️⃣ Investor reaction
If investors view the budget as risky → the dollar comes under pressure.
If they expect economic growth → the dollar receives support.
🎯 What to Expect From the Dollar Against Other Currencies
🔹 Against weaker economies / emerging markets
The dollar usually remains stronger and may appreciate.
🔹 Against economically stable countries
If those countries have strict monetary policy, healthy growth or low inflation — the dollar may weaken.
🔹 Additional factor
If central banks of other countries lower their rates, their currencies weaken while the dollar gains strength.
💵 Will the Dollar Rise or Fall?
The current trend in 2025 shows a tendency toward a weaker dollar:
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analysts note a decline of the U.S. dollar in 2025;
Source: Vantage Markets (USD slump 2025) -
the budget deficit increases pressure on the dollar;
Source: OANDA -
however, potential interest-rate hikes may temporarily support USD (short upward corrections).
📌 General conclusion:
The fundamental background points toward USD weakness, but short-term periods of strengthening are possible due to interest-rate expectations.
💱 Which Currency Pairs to Trade in Binary Options
The best pairs where the impact of the U.S. budget is the strongest (high liquidity and strong reaction):
✔ EUR/USD
The most traded pair in the world. Core reaction to the USD.
Source: Saxo Bank.
✔ USD/JPY
Highly sensitive to U.S. Treasury yields.
✔ GBP/USD
A strong pair against the dollar.
✔ USD/CAD
Depends on oil and USD, reacts well to changes in the dollar.
Source: Lirunex (USD Index impact).
Best choices for binary options:
➡ EUR/USD
➡ GBP/USD
➡ USD/JPY
📈 How to Apply the Strategy: Fundamental + Technical Analysis
Fundamentals show direction, technicals show the exact entry moment.
This is the best combination for binary options.
⭐ Strategy: “Break & Retest Following the Fundamental Trend”
Steps:
1️⃣ Wait 5–10 minutes after the news release
The market is chaotic during this period.
2️⃣ Determine the fundamental direction
Example: USD weakens → EUR/USD goes up.
3️⃣ Identify an impulse breakout (break)
A strong candle up/down after the news.
4️⃣ Wait for the price to return to the level (retest)
This is essential — don’t enter on the impulse.
5️⃣ Wait for a confirmation candle:
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small indecision candle,
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pin bar,
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engulfing candle.
6️⃣ Enter in the direction of the fundamental movement
Expiration: 3–5 minutes.
🔥 Example
Budget → deficit risks → weak dollar → EUR/USD rises.
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Breakout upward
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Return to the level
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Small confirmation candle
👉 CALL trade (3–5 minutes)
📌 Final Profitability Formula
Fundamentals tell you “where.”
Technical analysis tells you “when.”
The right currency pair tells you “on what.”
When all three factors align — signal accuracy increases sharply.
Want to trade precisely with up to 90% accuracy?
Follow global news — or join my trading sessions!
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